Reliability of the Spanish Peninsular Power System in 2030: Challenges and Strategies for a Sustainable Energy Transition

Abstract

The transition to a sustainable power system is crucial to reducing emissions and ensuring energy security. This study assesses the reliability of the Spanish peninsular power system by 2030, based on the National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC), using Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) indices. Results indicate a significant increase in renewable generation, particularly wind and photovoltaic, replacing conventional sources. However, LOLP is expected to rise more than tenfold, and LOLE may reach 200.43 hours per year, exceeding regulatory limits. To address these risks, proposed strategies include expanding international interconnections, improving energy storage, optimizing power plant planning, and implementing capacity market mechanisms. These measures are essential to maintaining system reliability while maximizing renewable energy integration. This study provides key insights for decision-making in the energy transition.